International Monetary Fund revises forecast on Azerbaijan's economic growth

18 April, 2018, 00:25 | Author: Regina Lloyd
  • IMF maintains 3-pct growth forecast for S. Korea

In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund still predicts world growth of 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, despite raising its estimates for U.S. and European Union growth compared to the January edition.

He said the recent tax reform in the USA will make things worse, stating "we now expect the U.S. current account deficit for 2019 will be roughly $150 billion higher", as a result of the tax and spending changes introduced earlier this year.

The IMF official said that these trends are more due to technology change than to trade, and even in countries where trade backlash is not prominent, public skepticism about policymakers' ability to generate robust and inclusive growth has spread.

The fund's projections are more bullish than that of the Institute of International Finance, which has projected global growth of 3.5 per cent this year and 3.4 per cent in 2019.

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While President Trump's tax cuts are expected to boost U.S. and global growth in the short term, the report warned that those effects will soon wear off as well. The latest forecast is unchanged, "with the short-term firming of growth driven by a recovery from the transitory effects of the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, and supported by strong private consumption growth", the WEO said. They all projected the country's economy will grow above 8 per cent, but that won't be.

"The prospect of trade restrictions and counter-restrictions threatens to undermine confidence and derail global growth prematurely", Obstfeld said at a press conference Tuesday.

President Donald Trump, who campaigned on a pledge to protect USA industries from what he argues is unfair foreign competition, has slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

"Conflict could intensify if fiscal policies in the United States drive its trade deficit higher without action in Europe and Asia to reduce surpluses", the Washington-based institution said, adding that the multilateral rule-based trade system that evolved after World War II was in danger of being torn apart. That's in line with its most recent estimate in January.

But for the next few decades, the risks to the global growth forecasts were broadly balanced, it added, with the potential for stronger business profits to increase hiring and investments that could boost productivity.

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