European Commission upgrades GDP growth forecast for Poland

10 November, 2017, 01:01 | Author: Regina Lloyd
  • The assembly line at the PSA Peugeot Citroen factory in Mulhouse France | Sebastien Bozon  AFP via Getty Images

Britain's economic growth is set to lag behind other EU countries over the next three years as the eurozone forges ahead at its fastest rate in a decade, according to European Commission forecasts.

The Spanish deficit could fall to 3.1 percent of GDP this year, down from 4.5 percent in 2016, and the Commission expects it will continue to shrink to 2.4 percent in 2018 and 1.7 percent in 2019.

The Commission also raised its growth forecast for next year to 2.1 percent from 1.8 percent.

However, Pierre Moscovici, the commissioner for economic and financial affairs, warned that while both the eurozone and the wider European Union are expected to grow in 2018 and 2019, "challenges remain in the form of high debt levels and subdued wage increases". The EC has forecast growth of 1.6 percent for Greece this year, with rates of 2.5 percent expected in both 2018 and 2019.

"The EU economy is performing well overall".

In 2019, GDP growth is projected to slow down to 4.1 percent, below potential output.




It also noted that "uncertainty continues to weigh on business investment" and the UK's GDP performance was expected to "remain subdued over the forecast horizon".

EU commissioner Pierre Moscovici said: "After five years of moderate recovery, European growth has now accelerated".

However, in view of Malta's openness to trade (nominal exports and imports combined to reach 270% of GDP in 2016) any volatility in Malta's main exporting sectors would have a disproportionately large impact on real GDP growth. "Growth should remain strong and broad-based this year". He also said the eurozone needs to become "more resilient" to future shocks and turn itself into a "true motor of shared prosperity".

Although the cyclical recovery has now been underway for 18 uninterrupted quarters, it remains incomplete, with for instance still significant slack in the labour market and untypically low wage growth. The economy would slow even further to 1.3 percent in 2018, followed by 1.1 percent in 2019.

Moreover, in spite of more social spending due this year's budgetary measures, such as an increase in pensions, current expenditure growth is expected to weaken in 2018. The Commission's autumn forecasts published today in Brussels are similar to those released earlier by the Croatian government, reports Jutarnji List on November 9, 2017. Monthly government statistics to date suggest that the 2017 general government primary balance target (1.75 pct of GDP in terms of the ESM programme definition) will be met, with the balance of risks tilted to the upside. The gap is seen declining to 0.9% next year, down from the previous estimate of 1.3%, and to 0.8% in 2019.

The closure of the second review in June 2017, together with the stronger-than-expected growth in the euro area and a favourable tourist season, are expected to strengthen the economy in the remainder of the year.

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